Climate Change and the Global Drug Supply Chain

The pharmaceutical industry relies on complex global supply chains to produce and deliver life-saving medications. However, climate change has introduced unprecedented risks that threaten the stability and reliability of these systems. Climate change is forcing governments and businesses to explore mitigation strategies to avoid future catastrophe. There is an urgent need to manage climate change risks in global supply chains¹. From the sourcing of raw materials to the transportation of finished products, extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and unpredictable environmental conditions are reshaping the drug supply landscape.

How Climate Change Disrupts Drug Supply Chains

Figure 1: Cold pharmaceutical supply chain

1. Extreme Weather Events

   Natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe, disrupting manufacturing facilities and logistics hubs. In 2017, Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico, a key pharmaceutical manufacturing hub, causing shortages of critical drugs, including IV bags and saline solutions².

2. Vulnerable Raw Material Supply

   The production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) depends on stable agricultural and chemical industries. Climate-induced stress on crops like cinchona (quinine source) and opium poppies (used for analgesics) has led to erratic yields. Additionally, the mining of essential raw materials, such as lithium and rare earth elements for drug manufacturing equipment, is being hampered by changing weather patterns. Also, with cold chain storage, many areas with limited technology are losing ground on areas where they can deliver before items such as vaccines become unstable or unusable³.

3. Transportation and Distribution Challenges

   Erratic weather conditions and rising sea levels disrupt shipping routes, causing delays in drug delivery. Cold-chain logistics—critical for vaccines and biologics—are particularly vulnerable³. Power outages and rising temperatures during transit can lead to spoilage and decreased efficacy³.

4. Increased Disease Burden

   Climate change exacerbates the spread of infectious diseases, increasing the demand for specific medications. Warmer climates are expanding the range of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue, straining the supply of antimalarials and antivirals.

Figure 2: Manufacturing supply chain from ingredient to patient

Strategies to Build Climate-Resilient Drug Supply Chains

1. Decentralized Manufacturing

   Reducing dependence on centralized manufacturing hubs can minimize the impact of localized climate disruptions. Establishing regional production facilities ensures continuity in drug supply even during disasters.

2. Green and Sustainable Practices

   Adopting environmentally friendly production methods, such as green chemistry, reduces the industry's ecological footprint. Renewable energy and water-efficient systems can also mitigate resource scarcity while improving resilience.

3. Predictive Analytics for Risk Management

   AI-driven tools can help pharmaceutical companies anticipate and prepare for disruptions. Predictive analytics can model supply chain vulnerabilities and optimize production schedules in response to potential climate events.

4. Innovations in Cold Chain Technology

   Advanced refrigeration systems that are energy-efficient and robust can ensure the safe transport of temperature-sensitive drugs, even in extreme conditions. Collaborations with logistics providers can further strengthen infrastructure in vulnerable regions.

Equity and Collaboration: Addressing Global Disparities

Climate change's impact on drug supply chains disproportionately affects low- and middle-income countries, where access to medicines is already limited. Rural regions with inadequate infrastructure are particularly vulnerable. Governments, pharmaceutical companies, and international organizations must collaborate to:

• Invest in resilient infrastructure for manufacturing and logistics.

• Ensure equitable access to climate-proof drug storage and delivery systems.

• Promote cross-border cooperation to secure essential medicine supplies during crises.

Economic and Public Health Implications

Disruptions to the drug supply chain result in increased healthcare costs and jeopardize public health. For example, delayed access to antibiotics during a disaster can lead to more severe infections and prolonged hospital stays. Addressing these vulnerabilities is not only a public health imperative but also an economic necessity.

A study by Nature Sustainability estimates that global pharmaceutical losses due to climate-related disruptions could exceed $50 billion annually by 2030 if proactive measures are not taken⁴. Investments in climate resilience can mitigate these losses and ensure the continuity of life-saving treatments.

Conclusion

Climate change presents a significant challenge to the global drug supply chain, demanding immediate and coordinated action. By decentralizing production, adopting sustainable practices, and leveraging technology, the pharmaceutical industry can build resilience and safeguard public health. With collaborative efforts and equitable solutions, we can ensure that critical medicines remain accessible, even in the face of a changing climate.

References

1. Ghadge, A., Wurtmann, H., & Seuring, S. (2020). Managing climate change risks in global supply chains: a review and research agenda. International Journal of Production Research, 58(1), 44–64.

2. WHO. (2018). Impact of Hurricane Maria on Pharmaceutical Supply Chains in Puerto Rico.

3. Pambudi, N. A., Sarifudin, A., Gandidi, I. M., & Romadhon, R. (2022). Vaccine cold chain management and cold storage technology to address the challenges of vaccination programs. Energy Reports, 8, 955–972.

4. Smith, J., & Li, T. (2023). Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Global Pharmaceuticals. Nature Sustainability.